Throughout the angle of your about three industries, the genuine value of output worth of first marketplace is less compared to artificial with the common mistake regarding seven.29%, especially more 5.0% anywhere between 2007 and you can 2009 and most ten.0% ranging from 2000 and 2006. Meanwhile, the true worth of brand new productivity property value secondary marketplace is greater than the fresh new artificial, which have an average error of 5.53%, higher than eight.0% throughout 2006-2011, and most ten.0% 
through the 2007-2008, showing your industrialization processes has actually expidited somewhat during this time period.
Results dos
It development is even seen in terms of energy production. Overall, the true output was larger than this new simulated count, that have the typical error away from seven.6%, particularly between 2004-2008 and you can 2010-2011 and you will 2015 getting more than 10.0%. While the 1998, producing energy has reached the reason for “improve within the wide variety and ensure have”, in contrast to manufacturing regarding the industrial sector. Since China’s coal information was numerous therefore the quantity of private coal enterprises try highest, the actual coal yields is much bigger than the new simulated. Through the 2000-2002 and you may 2013 and you will 2015, the true productivity surpassed the newest simulated of the six.9- nine.8%, particularly over ten.0% out-of 2004 to 2012.
Due to the fact county-possessed organizations handle oils resources and you will mining in China, nothing variation exists anywhere between real and you will artificial outputs, which have the average mistake off just one.56%. Natural gas, yet another kind of time during the Asia, is actually significantly impacted by national formula. The actual returns is actually bigger than this new artificial, with the common error of eight.33%. Throughout the years of fast financial increases such as 2006 and you can 2011, such as for example mistake are 11.0–13.6%. From inside the 2007–2010 they exceeded fifteen.0%, plus 2008 it also attained %. For Low-fossil energy production, the true output was smaller compared to the newest simulated, with the average mistake out-of step 3.6%, specifically 8.7% less last year, appearing your growth of non-traditional energy sources are notably less an effective affirmed. With regards to opportunity usage, the real efficiency is generally larger than the newest simulated, which have the average error off 6.12%. Except 11.0–15.0% through the 1998–1999 and you may 5.0% between 2004–2006 and you will 2008, the others was below 5%.
About angle off number 1, additional, tertiary markets energy use, the entire real consumption is actually larger than brand new simulated, that have the typical mistake out of eight.04%. Especially in the fast monetary development of 1998–1999 and you will 2004–2006, the real consumption is actually ten.0–% over the artificial. In the fresh new economic crisis away from 2007–08, the genuine use is 8.4% more new simulated. However, the actual use are 18.8% less than the new artificial as the 2015. China’s development and you will discount has actually registered a decreased-gains stage, shown by Northeast Asia and you can Shandong Province’s monetary market meltdown and you may shrinking times demand. Besides the actual use of 2002 try lower than % of artificial, the true times consumption of owners in the most common ages try huge compared to the simulated, which have the average error of step three.81%. With regards to time application (tce), the fresh problems in most years are in this 4%, towards the average mistake are 5.19%. The latest went on growth of times about aspects of residential consumption and transportation is largely consistent with the fact of expidited urbanization advertised because of the government as the 2000.
The degree of urbanization
About three alternative rules problems was implemented towards the system simulator, in addition to relevant urbanization level are found from inside the Fig. 4(a) and you can Dining table 5. Regarding the latest AED circumstances, the complete GDP frequency will increase off 19.7 trillion Yuan during the 2015 to 221.step one trillion Yuan inside the 2050, having a yearly rate of growth out-of seven.1%. China’s urbanization top often arrived at 70.0% in 2035 and % in 2050. not, monetary growth rate often decrease to minimize times demand considerably from the ERC condition. Of the 2020, GDP rate of growth usually head to % than the AED situation. Over the years, it pit will continue to develop. By 2050, GDP growth rate underneath the ERC circumstance is just % of the AED condition. The growth price away from China’s urbanization usually get rid of toward lag out-of financial growth even though in such a case circumstances. The urbanization level have a tendency to arrive at % from inside the 2035, and you will % in the 2050. Beneath the LOD condition, non-fossil opportunity development happens quite a distance towards the quickening brand new overall time also provide and you will improving urbanization and you may monetary development. Ergo, weighed against the brand new ERC condition, the new urbanization height in this circumstances is actually estimated to-be % from inside the 2050.
